A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
